The Big Mac disrupted from above

I was astounded to read this week that just one in five millennials have eaten a Big Mac. You can see this trend below millennials are flocking to more expensive but better quality burgers the type that Shake Shack sells. McDonald's focus on speed (nearly 70% of sales in the US are drive through) makes it difficult to offer more natural, better tasting burgers.

Big Mac disrupted from above
Disruption usually occurs from cheaper products but in this case it seems McDonalds is being disrupted from above. Customers are focusing on quality rather than speed. McDonalds is fast while Shake Shack is slow long lines mean long order times but it is better quality. Shack's focus on 100% all natural angus beer (beef), no hormones and antibiotics, wine and even snacks for dogs makes it the brand for Millennials. McDonald's image is that of a soft drink and Big Mac.

Shake Shack the millennial brand
McDonald's strength is in breakfast. The introduction of all day breaky has been a success there is a reason why they have 36,500 stores globally. To put this in context Shake Shack has only 50 stores in the US and another 50 globally with plans for 450 restaurants domestically. Only a handful of Shack's restaurants offer breakfast. Shake Shack is a big brand in a small company. Disruption doesn't just occur in technology. McDonald's is the brand for baby boomers, Shake Shack is the relevant brand for millennials.

Decisive has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Snapchat/Uber opening up the IPO market

The IPO market is coming back to life with news that Snapchat is planning an IPO next year at a rumoured $25 billion valuation. Snapchat generated $60 million in revenue in 2015 with expectations for as much as $1 billion in 2017 the majority from video ads. It's valuation would be twice that of Twitter and as a multiple of sales more expensive than Facebook at time of IPO. Since selling their loss making China business Uber is likely to follow. At this early stage with limited information all we can look at is revenue growth potential.

Price x Volume
Revenue growth is a function of price and volume. Snapchat likely has the ability to increase ad prices and increase user/ad volumes. Uber has volume growth but at its current commission rate it's hard to see this increasing. The attractiveness of the last big IPO Alibaba was that it could increase its pricing alongside increased customer growth. For example at the time of IPO Alibaba's mobile commission rate was 1.87% its now 2.8% of all products sold, to put this into context Ebay's is 8.4% so both price and volume could grow. One issue for Uber is their high take rate. A rate of 30% (see below) seems too high especially compared to other marketplaces. It would be unlikely that Uber could raise price though the majority of their rates are discounted and reimbursed to drivers so it's effective rate is lower. That leaves Uber relying mainly on user growth. Based on this I'm leaning towards Snapchat as an IPO. One thing we know for sure the IPO market is getting interesting.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-10-05/uber-s-outsize-commissions-leave-it-vulnerable-to-competition

The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Peak App?

There are so many apps to choose from. App stores are crowded along with our phone screens. We are even seeing apps advertising on TV my favourite is seeing Schwarzenger promoting the game app Mobile strike. Comscore recently released their 2016 mobile app report it confirms what we are all probably experiencing peak app downloads.

The only apps left to download seem to be mobile games 18-44 year old males tend to download 5 apps a month. Most users limit their apps to 4 screens on their phone with thumb reach the key reasons for app positioning. Generally app usage is becoming more concentrated users spend 9 out of 10 minutes with their top 5. The following are some of my favourite slides.

The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Cash isn't king for Mastercard

It's hard predicting what a company might earn in the future. There's a lot that could change. However there are a few companies out there that should do well no matter what happens to the economy. Mastercard and Visa are some of these companies. They both benefit from the declining use of cash. As users buy more online and payments become electronic both these companies will benefit. We are still at the early stages of this growth 83.7% of transactions globally are still cash.

Source: Mastercard investor day

Source: Mastercard investor day

With an outlook like that it's no surprise that these companies have outperformed the market.

Source: Mastercard investor day

Decisive has a long position in Visa and has no position in Mastercard. The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Data is Alibaba's core business

Alibaba talked about their many businesses on a recent investor day. The common trend among them all is data. They actually describe their core business as the generation of user data which can be used to fuel their retail ecosystem. Their apps are used much more frequently than you would expect of a shopping app. Their Taobao app has 40% of their active users coming back daily. On average these users are launching their app 7 times a day or 25 minutes a day, I can't imagine users opening Amazon that much.

Social selling works in China

Facebook and other social networks have tried social selling based on recommendations by friends. BABA has been successful by not connecting friends but by starting with strangers and using data to find common interests to create communities. 75% of users on the Taobao app are under 35 years old sharing information with special interest groups is a more natural way for them to talk and recommend products.

Investor questions answered

One of the major IPO questions/concerns was mobile monetisation. This is no longer an issue. Mobile take rates exceeded PC for the first time 2.8%. To put this in context Ebay's latest transaction rate was 8.4%. 75% of sales are from mobile devices.

Cloud opportunity
Also similar to Amazon BABA is growing in the cloud. Their cloud business was nearly breakeven this quarter with revenue increasing 156% year on year. Like Amazon growth is just beginning. The entire IT spend in China is $200 billion assuming 20% will be on the cloud which saves customers 25% it will be a $30 billion market BABA generated $187 million in the last quarter.

Decisive has a long position in Alibaba (BABA). The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

12 years since the Google IPO

It's been 12 years since Google went public at a valuation of $23 billion. There was a lot of skepticism 2004 was only a few years after the dot.com bust. Bankers were hoping to price Google at $135 a share but the final price was $85 which resulted in a modest first day pop of 18%. To celebrate the occasion CNBC have put together the best and worst performing stocks since the Google IPO. Only ten stocks have beat it.

Decisive has a long position in Google. The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Facebook thumbs up

It has been a historic turnaround for Facebook since their IPO. Barron's sums up the sentiment perfectly with a thumbs down in 2012 in contrast to a thumbs up released this weekend (August 2016). Technology is an easy area to get wrong and Facebook traded on the perception that mobile was a risk to the business but now four years later 84% of advertising revenue is from a mobile device. Mobile generated $5.24 billion in the last quarter alone and its driving the business as users spend more time on Facebook. At the time of the 2012 article Facebook was expected to earn nearly $1.36 a share in 2016 instead analysts are expecting nearly $4 a share. Perception vs reality is the key to the market where different views can lead to large rewards if proven correct. We attempt to find these differences but like everyone else we get things wrong and can be influenced by the media. Facts and opinions are very different things. Barron's price target has increased from $15 to $149 let's hope that Barron's has it right this time.


                                       2012                                                2016

Decisive has a long position in Facebook. The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.