Sunday, 9 October 2016

Snapchat/Uber opening up the IPO market

The IPO market is coming back to life with news that Snapchat is planning an IPO next year at a rumoured $25 billion valuation. Snapchat generated $60 million in revenue in 2015 with expectations for as much as $1 billion in 2017 the majority from video ads. It's valuation would be twice that of Twitter and as a multiple of sales more expensive than Facebook at time of IPO. Since selling their loss making China business Uber is likely to follow. At this early stage with limited information all we can look at is revenue growth potential.

Price x Volume
Revenue growth is a function of price and volume. Snapchat likely has the ability to increase ad prices and increase user/ad volumes. Uber has volume growth but at its current commission rate it's hard to see this increasing. The attractiveness of the last big IPO Alibaba was that it could increase its pricing alongside increased customer growth. For example at the time of IPO Alibaba's mobile commission rate was 1.87% its now 2.8% of all products sold, to put this into context Ebay's is 8.4% so both price and volume could grow. One issue for Uber is their high take rate. A rate of 30% (see below) seems too high especially compared to other marketplaces. It would be unlikely that Uber could raise price though the majority of their rates are discounted and reimbursed to drivers so it's effective rate is lower. That leaves Uber relying mainly on user growth. Based on this I'm leaning towards Snapchat as an IPO. One thing we know for sure the IPO market is getting interesting.


https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-10-05/uber-s-outsize-commissions-leave-it-vulnerable-to-competition

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