Sunday, 25 August 2013

Don't tase me bro

Taser International is famous for its electroshock weapon. Taser (TASR) became a Youtube hit in the famous don't tase me bro video below. Importantly for investors Taser has become a verb. In the public's mind Taser is the term used for being shocked much like Google is known for searching the internet. Achieving the goal of becoming a verb is normally very valuable for investors. Apparently the Taser weapon has been used 1.6 million times.



Growth shock drivers
Taser has three main growth drivers. The weapons upgrade cycle, international expansion and on officer video opportunity.

There are around 330,000 weapons that are beyond their five year useful life. Budgets were cut during the great recession so there is plenty of pent up equipment demand.

There is also room for international expansion with 1 in 2 sworn officers in the US users of the product vs1 in 50 internationally

The third factor on officer video is the companies most recent growth opportunity. US Law enforcement spends $2.5 billion on annual legal expenses around $2,555 per office per year. On officer video has significantly reduced complaints and incidents saving time and money. An International Association of Chiefs of Police study found that incident videos can reduce litigation by 93%. Police believe that once incidents are viewed from their perspective it gives third parties a better understanding of what has happened rather than a he said she said argument. Also since civilians and police know they are being recorded they tend not to do things they might have thought they could get away with. 



Source Taser International investor day

The recently released Axon products can be seen in the picture above. To management's knowledge Axon flex has not lost a tender to a competitor in the US. Axon flex includes one year of EVIDENCE.COM which is the storage site for digital evidence. When the devices are charged the evidence data is automatically uploaded to the internet. EVIDENCE.COM is an extremely interesting value add for law agencies and moves Taser from just hardware to software. 

EVIDENCE.COM
As can be seen below EVIDENCE.COM plans to be the one stop shop for digital evidence. This is important for police departments as they tend to work in small decentralised teams and tend not to have resident IT experts deployed at their stations. Multiple devices and hundreds of thousands of officers means the amount of information and time spent on evidence data is exploding. It is a software as a service model no hardware is needed, officers are also able to easily retrieve evidence no CD's needed.



Razor blade model
Individual cartridges which have unique numbers for tracking purposes accounted for 29% of sales. 17 cartridges are used on average over the life of every Taser gun. Tasers tend to be shot twice for training purposes every year and used once a year in the field.

With the introduction of off camera and EVIDENCE.COM Taser becomes more of a software rather than a hardware company. Investors appreciate the recurring revenue streams and stickiness of software companies just please don't tase me bro!

Jason

Disclosure: Decisive has no position in Taser (TASR) stock 
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 18 August 2013

Travel plans

With Christmas holidays only four months away it is time to start thinking about planning a holiday. Visa has helpfully published their recent global travel intentions study for 2013. Given how far away Australia is, I guess it is no surprise that we are the one top 5 spenders in the world just behind Saudi Arabia. We are making the most of a strong Australian dollar! The UK is surprising in the bottom 5 though future intentions to spend will nearly double suggesting that the UK economy is finally recovering.



Best travel sites
Since we Australians spend so much we better plan ahead. Unsurprisingly Tripadvisor is the most popular destination for planning a trip with Expedia the most popular booking site. Though Expedia has recently taken a hit with Booking.com moving aggressively into the US market. The US is the most visited destination at 17%. Tourism is extremely important for the economy contributing 9% to global GDP. In 2012 the number of international trips taken surpassed the one billion mark for the first time.




What to bring?
The most common gadget brought on the trip is a phone and the reason being is internet connectivity. The camera was second at 70%. The digital habit has taken off more in Asia with 79% of travellers uploading posts while European travellers tend to disconnect from daily life when travelling. On average global travellers take 11 days to plan a trip. Time to visit Tripadvisor, it's never too early to get organised!

Jason

Disclosure: Decisive has a long position in Visa (V) stock and Priceline (PCLN) owner of Booking.com
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 11 August 2013

Botox

As a company Allergan (AGN) is best known for its Botox product. As a cure for wrinkles AGN has become a celebrities best friend but in fact ophthalmology (eye care) is the largest division of the business. AGN is classified as a pharmaceutical company but consumer beauty is the major driver for the company. Botox is growing much like the magic pudding it is delivering new solutions for different problems with a current focus on reducing migraines.


AGN is positioned in three attractive sectors ophthalmology (eye care), obesity and cosmetics. All three sectors target the aging and increasing weight of populations around the world. As an investor a company that benefits from the ageing of the population and obesity are two attractive investment areas.

No patent cliff for Botox
Apparently Botox is a naturally occurring substance so AGN cannot patent it. But what they do have a patent on is the process of making and harvesting the Botox itself. Some have described it as valuable as the Coca-Cola recipe.



AGN targets EPS growth in the mid-teens and management do have a good track record. The stock has sold off recently because of reduced expectations regarding its future drug pipeline. There are concerns that competition in eye care will increase with the US Food and Drug Administration seeming to pave the way for competitors to start making generic forms of Restasis (chronic dry solution their second best selling product around 14% sales) much earlier than investors expected. The stock now trades at the closest premium to its peers in years. Even with a reduced pipeline exposure just to Botox suggests it is still a stock to watch.

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has no position in Allergan (AGN) stock
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 4 August 2013

Hello Moto

Motorola has officially unveiled their first phone under the ownership of Google (GOOG). Google paid $12.5 billion for Motorola Mobility in May 2012 which was Google's first push into making phone hardware. The phone is the first since Google bought the company over a year ago because it has taken time before new management could impact the company's product timeline and roll out their own designs.

Whats different? Choice and Voice
The power of choice (design your own phone) and the ability to control your phone by voice not just your hands. With your voice you can check the weather and get directions no more juggling with your phone voice commands begin with OK, Google Now. The phone also makes it easier to take photos with a flick of your wrist the camera activates, no more missed photo opportunities!

The smartphone has finally moved on with colour choice unlike Henry Ford famous 1930's Model T comment that a customer can have a car painted any colour that he wants so long as it is black! Potential customers can choose from 18 colours other than black and white with an overall 2,000 possible combinations for the front, back and buttons. We have progressed even further with the humble headphone that has colours available which can be matched to the phone. Another difference from competitors is that the phone will be designed and made in the US.

Moto X compared to the two most popular competing phones.

Comparison thanks to http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/moto-x-vs-iphone-5-vs-galaxy-s4/

The specs do not look great for those who want the fastest hardware and best screen resolution available. A visit to Motorola's blog explains their strategy of ease of use and not necessarily the best hardware. This might disappoint some users especially given some of the hype.

Google has kept both operating companies separate to overcome concerns of favorable treatment to an internal company over others like Samsung. This has lead to criticism from some Motorola employees that they have actually been disadvantaged and treated worse because Google does not want to show an inch of favoritism as the priority is to keep the Android mobile operating system open to all. This could be seen as making excuses already but Google has had a great track record in software and Motorola used to be great at devices. We will see the results late August, early September when the the phone will become available in the US.

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has a long position in Google (GOOG) stock which owns Motorola
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.