Sunday, 30 November 2014

Netflix changing HR not just TV

Netflix (NFLX) has changed the way we watch TV. Their on demand TV internet service makes much more sense than traditional TV viewing. Its no surprise that they are also innovating in their own company changing the Human Resources (HR) relationship. Unlike other companies NFLX does not have a fixed amount of vacation days, if you do the work you can holiday as much as you would like. NFLX is bringing both HR and TV to the modern age.

Creative versus industrial firms
A little while ago NFLX released a slideshow talking about their values and culture, largely as a recruiting tool for the company. Its what the founder Reed Hastings wishes he knew when he started his company. It has become NFLX's constitution. You can find the full 124 page presentation at slideshare currently at 9.8 million views. Its a memo for today's businesses as the majority of human resource processes are based around managing industrial firms but not creative firms. A manufacturing company is all about efficiency and not making errors. While in a creative world small errors are okay if you are able innovate quickly and get to the desired result. In a creative firm one really great employee could be worth ten average employees so you can afford to pay up.

As they say below NFLX is run like a team not a family. But unlike a team there are no fixed positions. The numbers of superstars needed is not limited. Great people create growth which attracts more talent which lets them accomplish even more.


Source: Netflix Culture: Freedom & Responsibility


Rewarding performance not effort
At NFLX great work is rewarded even if it required minimal effort. The focus is on output not effort. This focus on performance trickles down to holidays. NFLX does not track hours worked per day so they also do not track vacation time. If you get your work done you can vacation as much as you want though if you want 30 days off in a row you need to get a sign off from HR.


Source: Netflix Culture: Freedom & Responsibility

Flexibility more important than efficiency
NFLX believes that most companies curtail freedom and become bureaucratic as they grow. Processes get introduced as companies become bigger and more complex. It is a preferred outcome to undisciplined and chaotic growth. As companies grow they tend to dilute the talent pool as the bureaucracy drives high performing employees out. The growing size means the focus becomes on being more efficient but at the cost of being less flexible. NFLX's solution is to keep the bar high by growing the amount of high performance employees faster than business complexity. This means attracting great people and giving them the freedom to make a big impact. It also means concentrating the business on a few big products versus small ones so complexity does not increase too fast.

How to get the best team?
By awarding top of the market compensation and giving them freedom to make decisions. NFLX believes that hiring and working with the best is a better perk than free lunches.

Source: Netflix Culture: Freedom & Responsibility

When paying staff NFLX management use the keeper test. They consistently look to pay the amount it would take to keep you if you were leaving. Staff can choose how much of their compensation they receive in shares or cash. No matter how well NFLX is doing they will pay top market prices for the best staff. Just like a sports team NFLX pays their top prices whether they are winning or losing. Unlike Goldmans or other high performance firms NFLX avoids top or bottom rankings. They don't want employees to compete with each other they want all their employees to be in the top 10% relative to their global peers. No annual reviews just regular talk about your performance.

They actually encourage their staff to take a recruiters call, ask them how much and send this number back to HR. Where can I apply!

 Jason


Disclosure: Decisive does not have a position in Netflix (NFLX) stock.


The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Wednesday, 19 November 2014

Streaming into Netflix

Netflix (NFLX) is the world's leading internet television network. Its 50 million customers are able to stream what they want to watch, anytime, anywhere on any internet connected device. It's a much better experience than linear TV as it gives you the power of choice with no advertising. NFLX can recommend shows for you based on what you have watched and you can watch as many episodes of a particular series as you want. There is no need to wait for next Sunday 7:30pm to catch up on your favourite show.

Its here March 2015
NFLX has announced that it is finally coming down under. It charges $8.99 a month in the US but there has been no announcement of the pricing here. NFLX can charge cheaper prices as it cuts out the middle man it doesn't need to pay a cable operator half their revenues. NFLX has a relationship direct with the consumer, there is no need for a commitment users can come and go as they please. It is likely that Australians will get less choice than US viewers as NFLX has to separately license shows for each region. But this should change over time, this year NFLX plans to spend $3 billion on content.

30% of all internet traffic
NFLX is a big success in America with more subscribers than HBO. The picture below is over a year old but the data is still the same NFLX basically takes over the internet during prime time. Traditional TV viewing is dropping because of increasing internet television. Since this chart was released a year ago Youtube has actually dropped to around 13% of usage.


http://www.statista.com/chart/1620/top-10-traffic-hogs/

Originally original
NFLX is all about TV series and movies. It does not stream news, sports or music videos. It is beginning to differentiate itself with exclusive content like HBO that you cannot find elsewhere. NFLX has produced House of Cards, Hemlock Grove and Orange is the New Black which have all been hits. While it did not win any Emmy's 31 nominations is a great start for a company that has just started to produce their own shows. The next big series to be released will be Marco Polo on December 12 a ten part series. Developed by the Weinstein brothers they are talking it up as their Game of Thrones. The series is estimated to have cost $90 million see preview below. To put this spend into context the first Mission Impossible movie cost $80 million.



Getting the best talent
NFLX has an advantage in launching new shows as they don't have limited viewing spots like traditional TV. NFLX is much more flexible with programming and can attract some of the best creative talent because they know NFLX will stick with their show and not pull it after two weeks.
NFLX is also looking to upend the movie release schedule. NFLX has announced a sequel to Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon and will give subscribers instant access to the movie at the same time its shown at the cinema. It will be released on the same day as it appears in Imax theatres most other movie chains are refusing to show the film.

The power to binge
The great thing about NFLX is choice and many viewers choose to binge watch. Binge watching has been defined as watching 2-6 episodes of one TV series in a sitting. NFLX conducted a survey last year and found that 61% of members binge watch regularly. The majority of NFLX's most popular shows are Breaking Bad, Mad Men and the Walking Dead that are perfect for binge viewing. Starting Jan 1 they will stream the entire series of Friends. There were also rumours that they were in talks for the Seinfeld series, fingers crossed.

Just in case you get too carried away apparently the best way to stop the binge cycle is to watch the first couple of minutes of the next episode. If you can stop yourself early all your problems/concerns will be resolved and you won't be engrossed enough yet in the current episodes issue or drama! The current record for binge watching is 87 hours straight.

Watching the investment
I personally like to invest in companies that I love as a consumer. NFLX is a killer consumer product disrupting the industry but as an investment it is trickier. Their last result was a little concerning it hiked prices by $1 to $8.99 which resulted in new subscriber sign ups which were less than the prior year. This was worrisome as they should still be in the early innings of growth. They have guided to an addressable market of between 60-90 million just in their domestic market the US. This subscriber number is the most important as NFLX has fixed content costs. A new subscriber is more profitable as fixed costs are covered the extra revenue drops to the bottom line. Its a virtuous circle the more subscribers they have the more content they can spend on which creates more subscribers.


Free cash flow was also an issue. Funding new shows is expensive with costs created up front before the benefits come in. NFLX have hinted that free cash flow will suffer as they spend more on original content. I personally think these are short term issues but given the stocks high valuation we will watch the subscriber numbers very closely.

TV or Netflix
NFLX has given users the power of choice. It hasn't even entered Australia yet but it is already bringing benefits to Australian consumers. Forcing Foxtel to finally compete by dropping the price of its basic package in half from $50 to $25. The conversation is no longer which channel to watch but whether to put on TV or NFLX. Traditional TV is great for news or sports but for everything else there's NFLX.

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive does not have a position in Netflix (NFLX) stock.


The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Thursday, 13 November 2014

Twitter analyst day

Big events around the world happen on Twitter (TWTR). It is the only public, conversational and real time social network. But unlike other social networks it is confusing to use. Everyone has figured out that Facebook is for keeping in touch with friends and Linkedin for work colleagues but TWTR is less clear. Its sort of like walking into a bar or party where there are lots of interesting people but you don't stay too long because you don't really know anyone or who to talk to. It hasn't been clear to investors either. Even TWTR admits most users don't know why or how to use it hence the analyst day and a promise of new features.

Twitter is public and real time
TWTR is different from other social networks by being public and real time. It is the best way to share news/updates with the world. A tweet from Ellen DeGeneres received 3.4 million retweets but it went viral on other sites around the world that picked up on the tweet (see below.) This ability to go viral has made it very valuable for advertisers and users. It increases the effectiveness of events and TV advertising as users tweet and use their mobile while watching key shows/events encouraging other users to engage and tune in. This is also the problem as everyone is aware of TWTR but users tend to engage with events and then drop off.


Source: Twitter analyst day


Analyst day promises and changes
TWTR announced a lot of upcoming product changes mostly centered around making it easier to use when you first sign up. Apparently 125 million visitors go to TWTR's home page each month and decide not to sign up or login. TWTR will provide new users with an instant timeline to show users whats happening on the site so they don't have to search and figure out who to follow. Provide updates that show important tweets that you may have missed since you last logged in. TWTR will also introduce the ability to share and discuss tweets privately through direct messages. For advertisers they will make the process simpler by adding the ability to turn tweets into ads with just a few clicks.

Source: Twitter analyst day

They also shared lots of good stats
  • Mobile user growth 3x internet user growth.
  • 500 million tweets per day, no surprise that the majority are tech related with 554 million technology related tweets a month.
  • The most concerning information (see below) is the number of tweets per day has plateaued over the past 13 months. Its too early to see this happening.
  • 83% of the Fortune 500, 75% of NFL and NBA players have TWTR accounts.
  • Ad load of 1.3% was interesting given Facebook shows ads around 5% of the time. If they increased ad loads to similar rates they could increase revenues from $1.4 billion to $5 billion.
  • TWTRs annualised average revenue per user is $5.09


Source: Twitter analyst day


TWTR also shared a hypothetical chart of potential revenue if everything went well. They point out it is only hypothetical but it is big target for them if they can produce similar revenue as Google, Amazon and Ebay.

Source: Twitter analyst day


Tweeting a verb
TWTR has a few things going for it as it has 90% global brand awareness. Tweeting has become a verb just like Kleenex or Xerox brands are valuable to consumers. Social networks are also typically great businesses because it is user generated content. The content is exclusive, unique and it's free. When your users work for you for free its a great business.

TWTR said all the right things with a roadmap for product changes and a hypothetical goal for producing as much revenue as Google, Ebay and Amazon but the hard part is executing. With the number of tweets flat over the last 13 months this presentation creates a risk of over promising and under delivering. I personally think these changes will improve their service but trying to follow in the footsteps of Google, Amazon and Ebay with revenue targets will only set themselves up for future disappointment.

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive does not have a position in Twitter (TWTR) stock.


The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Wednesday, 5 November 2014

Open Sesame with Alibaba

Alibaba (BABA) just reported its first result post IPO and their results were outstanding. The key revenue, mobile and user metrics showed accelerating growth. This wasn't the Facebook IPO BABA showed how an IPO should be run. $95 billion was transacted on a mobile device in the past 12 months. 35.8% of sales are mobile related with BABA having 86% market share of mobile e-commerce. User growth also accelerated to 52% growth see below. Its amazing to see all these numbers accelerate given they are growing off a larger base.

Source: Alibaba 10Q presentation

BABA has been described as the Ebay of China except BABA has 80% of Chinese ecommerce marketshare. Its actually twice as dominant as a combined Ebay and Amazon around 35-40% of the US ecommerce market. The average user buys from BABA 52 times a year, whereas the average Amazon user buys 16 times a year. This dominance has meant that brands like Tesla and Costco have setup stores on BABA's Tmall to sell direct to consumers. Costco will sell their usual products including baby goods and beauty items, mailing from the US to the customers door in China. If you're shopping in China you start on one of BABA's sites. Like most internet sites BABA benefits from the network effort. More buyers attracts more sellers which attract more buyers its a virtuous circle see below.


Source: Alibaba IPO roadshow


A mix of Google and Ebay
BABA actually monetizes more like Google with advertising. In fact it is the second largest search advertising engine in China. BABA's retail revenues are driven by Taobao and Tmall. Taobao is a consumer to consumer stie similar to Ebay while Tmall is similar to Amazon where big brands open stores. Alibaba does not hold inventory but sells clicks. Its a great business model in a competitive market like China where sellers bid to position themselves higher on the site. According to Merrill Lynch estimates Tmall's take rate is around 6%. Tmall charges commissions and advertising whereas Taobao's rate is lower around 2% because there are no commissions for selling on the site.

Growth and monetisation potential
BABA has 307 million customers while this is a big number its less than a quarter of China's population. 34% of urban Chinese use e-commerce but only 9% of rural Chinese use e-commerce. They plan to help these farmers sell their goods to the city while also buying products in the city from BABA. The longer a customer has been with BABA the more comfortable they are on spending. It really is a weekly habit. Average spending levels for a year old customer is RMB1,000, 5 years is RMB15,000 and 10 years is RMB30,000.

BABA is not looking to maximise their monetization rate of sales but if you compare their rates versus the global averages there is plenty of upside. Ebay and Mercadolibre (Latin American e-commerce) site typically monetise around 9% of their sales. If BABA wanted to maximise its rates it could nearly triple its revenue, with no change in expenses this would drop to the bottom line. A dominant Chinese e-commerce site also has a good chance to go global because China is the manufacturer to the world its 42 million small to medium enterprises are more than the US, India and Japan combined.


                                                    Source: Alibaba 10Q presentation


Corporate Governance risk
The risk is corporate governance. Like most tech companies BABA will be controlled by a select few. We feel the Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structure is the main risk. Foreigners are not allowed to have majority control of certain businesses in China. Many Chinese companies create a domestic vehicle that contains the restricted business and licenses which are owned by a local Chinese. Through legal agreements the economic interest is transferred to a foreign listed company. Alibaba has tried to minimize this risk by holding their licenses in the VIE while conducting as little business as possible in the VIE. 11.9% of BABA's revenue is conducted in its VIE.

Optionality on growth
BABA also has some great emerging businesses. They own the largest cloud computing business in China which can leverage BABAs IT infrastructure to lease to other businesses at competitive prices. It also has a stake in logistics and delivers around 50% of packages in China. The amount of data they have on customers is also compelling. Knowledge of a users buying pattern means they can personalise pages for different buyers improving conversion rates. They also receive 37.5% of profits from Alipay (online escrow payment) which has 300 million users twice the number of Paypal.

BABA has unprecedented growth and monetisation potential. It takes quite a business to make Amazon and Ebay look mediocre. In its first result BABA has done just that.


Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has a long position in Alibaba (BABA) stock.


The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 2 November 2014

Snacking on Mondelez

Mondelez (MDLZ) is the king of snacks with iconic brands in biscuits and chocolate. You might not have heard of MDLZ but you will be familiar with its Oreo cookies and Cadbury chocolate bars. MDLZ was spun-off from Kraft Foods in 2012. The idea was to unshackle the high growth global snack brands from the slower growing supermarket staples at Kraft. MDLZ has the brands that make customers smile and kids cry when they don't get what they want.


MDLZ's top 15 power brands are expected to drive 70% of their growth. These brands include Oreo, Chips Ahoy, Belvita, Cadbury, Toblerone, Trident and Stride. Over 45% of sales are in the fast growing emerging markets where snacking habits are increasing with growing wealth.

One smart cookie
Oreo is milk's favourite cookie. It is also one of the most liked brands on Facebook with 38 million likes. It is the number one food brand on Facebook. They have had plenty of social media success their Super bowl tweet you can still dunk in the dark received great coverage with 16,000 retweets. Their facebook page has taken off with Oreo commemorating key events/weeks like Gay Pride and Elvis week with their biscuits see below. This digital savvy has helped Oreo grow double digit for two years in a row in North America. Oreo is so popular that if we stacked each Oreo ever made the pile would reach the moon and back six times. Over 25 million Oreo's are eaten in the US it has also been a hit in China. Growth took off when they reduced the sweetness of the cream, introduced a wafer version and banana, peach and grape flavors.


Developing developing markets
MDLZ should benefit from the rising emerging middle class. While these markets are volatile they are growing at above industry rates which should grow for years to come. For example in India MDLZ cover only one million out of the 7 million outlets that sell confectionery. Oreo is the number one biscuit in China. Snacking is a late adoption category its a treat used to relax and enjoy. As consumers move into the middle class they increase their chocolate consumption by three times.

Can't touch these brands
MDLZ brands have such a great emotional connection to their consumers that they tend to be more immune from private label. MDLZ owns Vegemite which has proven to be too strong for private label clones. Apparently it is still consumed in 80% of Australian households. Even Aldi's fake version has not dented sales. Even with these great brands MDLZ is still innovative. Last year 17% of sales came from innovation of existing products nearly twice their historic average.

More snacks less coffee
Results since the spin off have disappointed investors but there are increasing signs of management focus. MDLZ recently spun off their coffee business to DE Master Blenders receiving $5 billion after tax and a 49% share in the combined company. The combination of the second and third largest coffee companies by sales will create an entity with 16% share of the coffee market.The market leader Nestle has 23% share. MDLZ will use the proceeds to pay down debt and buy back shares. This focus means revenues from snacking will increase from 75 to 85% of company revenues.

MDLZ should grow profits at a low double digit growth rate. It trades at a discount to its peers like Hershey but has better margin expansion potential. Its 12% margins are expected to expand to the 15-19% average enjoyed by peers. MDLZ also has Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management on board as an activist shareholder which should help management focus on execution. While its not something we expect MDLZ has also been seen as a takeover target for Pepsi. A merger between Pepsi's dominant chips business Lays and MDLZ's biscuits and chocolate would provide a good match and add even more scale. Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management has stakes in both.

Its way too hard to write a blog about this company without getting hungry that's a good sign for an investor!

 Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has a long position in Mondelez (MDLZ) stock.


The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.