Sunday, 24 November 2013

Linkedin the social network

Linkedin (LNKD) was one of the first global social networks founded one year ahead of Facebook in 2003 and three years ahead of Twitter. Globally LNKD has 259 million members and signs up more than two new members every second, while its not the largest social network LNKD has produced the best returns for shareholders. It has also flown under the radar news wise compared to Twitter and Facebook with no movie or books produced about the founding of the company or any controversial privacy and political issues.

Its not just advertising
As a company LNKD is quite different from its social media peers in that advertising only drives 23% of revenues. The majority of revenue comes from its talent solution products which are subscription fees charged to recruiters to access their database of professionals. The other major revenue stream is LNKD's premium subscriptions which unlock greater functionality to users to better see connections and the ability to contact users (important for marketers).


Its all about the passives
LNKD estimates that around 10-15% of the workforce are looking for work at a point in time. Obviously if you were to focus on just that pool companies would be missing out on a lot of potential candidates, historically this was where recruiters added value with their contacts of passive candidates. However LNKD's better mousetrap has enabled companies to search and target the 85% pool directly who are not actively looking for a job.

According to the CFO LNKD has three competitors for its products, personal referrals, internal hires and LNKD's own basic products for which users do not have to pay. Its a big statement LNKD is effectively saying that there is no comparable product out there. In his words "what we do is so unique right now, particularly since the biggest piece of the business is related to passive recruiting, the ability to find people who are perhaps in jobs and to be able to do it vis-à-vis very powerful search and the ability to see how you're connected to that person, has a very high ROI. That, I think, only we can do."

While there are many recruiters using the service there are still over 250,000 companies around the world with over 100 employees that could probably justify using the talent solution recruiting tools. This is a big market compared to the 22,000 users in the September quarter.

More marketers than recruiters
Large sales team are another market for LNKD database. LNKD's network of connections enables sales teams to better target and close sales. For example if before making a call a salesperson knew a colleague went to school with a lead then he could provide an introduction instead of making a cold call improving the chances of success. This new product called Sales Navigator costs $50 a month. LNKD is moving slowly with the product as they need to balance the privacy of users. LNKD has put in a number of constraints like amount of emails sent per month so that the service does not become annoying to users. LNKD believes that better targeting will reduce the amount of spam around the world and actually be useful to users.

Not banned in China
What is most interesting about LNKD is that it is not banned in China like the other social networks like Facebook and Twitter. LNKD has no corporate presence in China and no Mandarin language support for its services yet it has still signed up 3 million users in English. It seems even the Chinese government will tolerate the risk of a social network if the focus is to recruit and find jobs for candidates. This is obviously a big opportunity for LNKD as more than 6 million university students graduate in China each year.

What about Australia? 
LNKD has announced that as of October 2013 its membership base in Australia has surpassed 5 million up from 540,000 five years ago.

According to the press release the top 5 companies by employee members in Australia are basically the top 4 banks. 

Top companies by members in Australia

1. Telstra
2. National Australia Bank
3. Commonwealth Bank
4. ANZ
5. Westpac

Out of the top 5 industries represented no. 1 is IT but surprisingly construction is no.2

Top industries
1.       Information Technology and Services
2.       Construction
3.       Financial Services
4.       Education Management
5.       Hospital & Health Care
The majority of titles are management related

Top Titles
1.       Owner
2.       Director
3.       Manager
4.       Managing director
5.       Teacher


With its three revenue streams of marketing, advertising, recruiting and the potential of China, LNKD provides its customers with more value than the other social networks. LNKD is much more than a Facebook/Myspace with Ties!


Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has no long position in Linkedin (LNKD) stock 

The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 17 November 2013

Iconix the second largest licensing company in the world (after Disney)

Very few public companies derive 90% of revenues from licensing a portfolio of brands. Iconix Brand Group (ICON) is unique in that ICON wholly or partially owns 33 consumer brands. In the latest top 150 global licensors awards ICON's brands reported sales of $13 billion 2nd behind Disney and just ahead of PVH corp which owns Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein in number 3.




Importantly ICON does not have fashion risk as it receives guaranteed royalties. ICON does not take inventory risk and receives minimum royalties from its licensees which average around 3% of sales. Licensees must also make minimum payments for marketing the brands. As of June 2013 ICON had the right to receive over $800 million in minimum royalty revenue from their current licensees this compares to revenue of $430 million this financial year. Impressively ICON does this all with little infrastructure with only 148 employees, in 2012 each employee generated $2.4 million in sales.

ICON already does business with every retailer in America, to grow further ICON must tap into other areas like retailers such as Home Depot and Petsmart. The acquisition of Peanuts, Snoopy and Dilbert (a hero to cynical office workers) helps move the company from just fashion to media, theme parks and financial institutions.




Peanuts the movie!
ICON formed a partnership with the Schulz family and bought into 80% of the business with the Schulz's owning the rest. No new Peanut comics have been drawn for a decade and as a brand Peanuts and Snoopy have stalled. The brand was acquired in 2010 and sales have flattened out at $80 million for the past two years ICON hopes to reboot the franchise with an upcoming movie in 2015. If all goes to plan ICON believes that sales of Peanuts products including box office could double to $160 million.

The movie in conjunction with Twentieth Century Fox is slated for release November 2015. While the contract details have not been disclosed ICON has hinted that it is similar to goods licenses in that they receive a royalty piece from every movie ticket sold. ICON is hopeful that the movie will create new licensing opportunities and box office sales that will drive new revenue streams. ICON is not putting any money down which is fortunate given the last Peanuts movie in 1980 earned just $2 million.

Snoopy the credit card?
Metlife has used Snoopy as their company ambassador since 1985. In 2006 Metlife acquired exclusive international rights to use Snoopy in financial services including credit and debit cards. These contracts are up for renewal in 2014. According to Forbes magazine the licensing deal brings in $12 million annually.

Growth getting harder to come by?
International is a key driver for growth at just 33% of business it can still grow. Whereas in America ICON's brands already take up a lot of shelf space with around 14% of Walmart soft goods, 15% of Target and 10% of Kmart. Their top 5 customers contribute 36% of revenue. ICON has always been able to renew contracts above $10m in value but due to the sliding scale royalty structure the % earned decreases as the brand grows.

ICON is a unique company given the licensing structure. However ICON is reliant on Peanuts to be a success as they are fully distributed within US fashion retail. Let's hope that Snoopy stays on top and does not end up inside the doghouse!

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has no long position in Iconix Brand Group (ICON) stock 

The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 10 November 2013

Its a Sony

Consumers know Sony (SNE) for its electronics business, movies, music and through Playstation its games. In the stockmarket SNE trades mostly as an electronics business yet the majority of profits come from its financial, movies and music divisions.

As everyone knows SNE used to be the dominant electronics company but in the past decade SNE has been left behind by Apple and newer Korean competitors like Samsung. There are signs of change with a new CEO Kaz Hirai, Kaz has set about on an aggressive turnaround with a focus on one Sony with products that incorporate both hardware and software. However after two straight profitable quarters SNE recently announced a second quarter loss dealing a massive setback to SNE's turnaround ambitions. The downgrade was so bad that Moody's warned SNE credit rating could be cut to junk.



Why SNE? Thriller content
SNE owns some of the best music content in the world, it is the second largest global music company and has full or partial rights to the catalogs of Michael Jackson and the Beatles. Michael Jackson and the Beatles alone are a gold mine but SNE also owns Usher, Eminem and even rights to One Direction. The company has over 2 million songs in its catalogue. Part of Kaz's plan is to shed more light on the music and picture segments and finally give investors access to SNE's entertainment management team on meetings and conference calls.

SNE also owns many notable movie franchises including Spider-man, the Karate kid and Men in Black. Their TV catalogue includes I Dream of Jeannie, Bewitched, All in the Family and rights to the Seinfeld library. SNE owns 124 channels in more than 159 countries the majority in Latin America and Asia. SNE monetises their film library content through iPad apps on Crackle an online ad supported viewing service and through Vevo a collaboration with Universal and Google where users can watch the latest in music videos.

Seinfeld no soup for you! Sony owns the rights

SNE is also the creator of the Playstation with the fourth version out next month. This will be SNE's first release of a console in eight years. The pricing is expected to be priced less than Microsofts XBox and include more cloud based services and sharing such as making it possible to view ingame action streamed live to friends.

Why not SNE? Electronics not so thrilling
Kaz's goals are to return the electronics business to profitability. However they are structurally challenged industries with the television business unprofitable for the last number of years. PC, TV and camera sales are all struggling from the move to tablets and smartphones. My original thought was to value these divisions at a zero valuation but some sort of negative value needs to be attributed given the large capital requirements and relatively tough workplace restructuring rules in Japan.

SNE bought out Ericsson's stake in their mobile joint venture after ten years. This made sense as SNE can now integrate its software and all devices and they could finally focus on smartphones! The agreement also gives SNE ownership of some interesting patents whose coverage and worth is hard to determine. Even though smartphone sales are off a small base they are heading in the right direction.



Abenomics
Shinzo Abe the new Japanese prime ministers attempt to revive Japan's economy should help SNE as a depreciating Yen makes SNE goods more competitive overseas. SNE also has a financial services business made up of mainly life and auto insurance SNE will benefit from the rising stockmarket with the Nikkei 225 being one of the best performers in the world.

On the downside the consumer electronics business will keep detracting from the picture, movie and gaming assets. Dan Loeb the activist hedge fund manager is a shareholder and has pushed for a partial listing of its entertainment assets. Personally we would like SNE to keep their best assets and see a spin off of their consumer electronics business as investors (including ourselves) seem to attribute a negative value to the assets.

It seems all technology companies are following Apples path of integrating hardware and software. SNE and Microsoft have always had the ability to do the same but both seem more determined this time around. There is definitely value in SNE it just needs to be unlocked, we will stay tuned!

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has no long position in Sony (SNE) stock 

The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 3 November 2013

The Kentucky Derby

Its Melbourne Cup week and as thoughts turn to betting and horse racing we thought its time to take a closer look at Churchill Downs (CHDN). CHDN owns the race course for the most exciting two minutes in sport the Kentucky Derby. The track is 2 kilometers long and is the longest running annual sporting event in the US run over 139 consecutive years. The race is also known as the run for the roses with a blanket of 564 red roses awarded to the winner each year.

The big board
Ever been that fan who spent the day at the races but never saw a horse? CHDN understands so they have installed what they call the Big Board for the 2014 race. In partnership with Panasonic CHDN has installed a 15,224 square foot high definition LED video board, the board will be 171 feet long and the structure 170 foot tall. The board and structure will weight over 1,000,000 pounds and is bigger than 3 NBA basketball courts or 2,200 46 inch flat screen TVs.



Sports not gambling
CHDN makes the majority of its revenue through premium ticket sales the largest contributor at 50% of revenue with the rest split between sponsorships, wagering and TV licensing. Unfortunately the rest of racing is not profitable CHDN typically makes a profit in the second quarter when the Derby is run the rest of the year is relatively quiet and unprofitable.

The TV rights (with NBC) and sponsorship (Yum Brands) are up for grabs following the 2015 race and given the increased focus on live sports for advertising we believe CHDN is well positioned for improved terms. Both deals were renewed in 2011 and the Derby's popularity has increased since with 16.2m viewers this year up from 9% in 2012 and up 12% in 2011. The race is unique as it is the only annual sporting event that draws more female viewers than male at 52%. CHDN believes that the Derby is worth a lot more if it was valued as a sports rather than betting asset.


Regional casinos but some online
The problem is CHDN has been buying regional casinos with racing now only contributing 34% of revenue compared to 69% in 2009. Because of these diversification efforts CHDN has been valued more as a regional gaming asset than a unique sporting event. CHDN also has an interesting online wagering business which is 20% of revenue the site TwinSpire.com is a leader in the market with 42% US marketshare. While online growth is slow, the recent quarter showed 7.3% growth this compared favourably to overall industry growth of 1.3%. Wagering was already declining and the financial crisis has added to industry woes with wagers down 20% from the peak in 2008.

CHDN will conduct the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby on the 3rd of May 2014. Giddy up!

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has no long position in Churchhill Downs (CHDN) stock 

The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.