Sunday, 14 December 2014

Christmas stocks and perks for the kids

Its nearly Christmas and we're all out and about searching for that perfect gift. This year it's a little bit easier shopping for the kids due to the popularity of Disney's Frozen and the continued interest in Star Wars toys. I've always thought that Disney shares are one of the best presents parents can give to kids. It can help them understand shares and investing though at the time they probably won't appreciate it! A great way to get kids involved are with companies that they can understand and perks that they can benefit from. Unfortunately Disney have closed their shareholder theme park discounts but there are some local shares that offer great perks.

Stocks with benefits
Here in Australia Amalgamated Holdings (AHD) provides some of the best discounts. Offering shareholders with at least 500 shares 15% discount at all Rydges, QT and Atura hotels including 25% discount for food and beverage. 10% discounts on lift tickets and clothing at Thredbo and also cheap movie tickets at Event Cinemas, Greater Union and Birch Carroll and Coyle. It also comes with a 5.5% dividend yield which can help you pay for all the entertainment.

For the bigger kids Echo entertainment shareholder benefits might fit the bill. The owner of the Star in Sydney, Jupiters Casino on the Gold Coast and the Treasury casino in Brisbane gives you 10% off accommodation and food. Unfortunately the trend of companies offering benefits has declined, for most companies it is not worth the cost of running the program.

2015 Ford Mustang on my Christmas wishlist for next year

In the US Ford is bucking the trend with the most interesting shareholder discount. While the kids probably appreciate model cars holders of Ford shares can apply for discounted car purchases. Known as the Xplan if you own at least 100 shares for over 6 months you can receive effectively the factory invoice price or 4% higher than what employees pay saving hundreds or thousands of dollars. It's pretty compelling when 100 shares will only set you back $1,570.

Stocks kids can appreciate
Kids always grow out their toys or clothes but a well chosen stock will increase in value and provide them an appreciation (am sure the kids won't realise it at the time) of investing. As mentioned above my favourite is Disney followed by Hasbro. Disney's recent movie hit Frozen is still a top seller a year on. Starting next year the new Star Wars saga will keep the momentum building with Star War toys for a new generation.

Disney shares are a great gift for kids because they are a monopoly on kids entertainment. Last year Disney controlled 80% of the entertainment category with 6 of the top 10 licensed franchises. Number one being Disney Princess, No.2 Star Wars, No.3 Winnie the Pooh, No.4 Cars, no. 6 Mickey, No.8 Toy Story. We can also add Frozen to the top ten character list, its now the highest grossing animated film of all time. The outlook for the studio also looks strong with the Avengers 2 and the first of the new Star Wars saga beginning next year (see below). Disney will also give the kids exposure to the leading sports network ESPN, the main reason why we pay for cable.

Source: Disney Bank of American presentation 2014


In a digital world Hasbro is navigating the physical toy industry a lot better than its main competitor Mattel. Disney has been so impressed with Hasbro that they are transferring the license for Disney princess (Cinderella, Snow White etc) and Frozen dolls from Mattel to Hasbro starting 2016. These licenses will join other Disney licensed properties such as Marvel and Star Wars. Hasbro has its own brands such as GI Joe, My Little Pony, Play Doh, Nerf and Transformers which has benefited from recent movie releases. Hasbro also has the license to Sesame Street. They have outperformed their competitors by getting their characters back on TV. TV shows and movies keep their characters top of mind with brand recognition and give kids stories which they can play to. Hasbro is also outperforming in the emerging markets growing 25% per annum versus industry growth of 12%. You can see their key brands below. Even in a digital world physical toys like Monopoly, Nerf and Play-Doh are priceless still growing years after they were introduced.

Source: Hasbro 2013 investor day


Hopefully you've got some good Christmas present/share ideas. Wishing you all a great Christmas and all the best in the New Year!

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has a long position in Disney (DIS) stock.


The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 7 December 2014

Starbucks venti growth

Starbucks (SBUX) just held their biannual investor day setting out their goals for the next 5 years. Management reiterated that they are not just in the coffee serving business but in the experience and people serving business. This ambition could be seen a few years ago when they ditched Starbucks Coffee on the logo. SBUX's founder Howard Schultz wants to build a company that endures just like Disney.

Source: Starbucks, logo changes over the years

Their growth plans can be summed up in the slide below. SBUX plans to increase stores from 21,000 to 30,000 by 2019. Growth will also be driven by food and lunch leveraging their La Boulange acquisition. Currently 46% of SBUX's business is in the morning but the rest of the day is where customers spend 85% of their money. The biggest news was SBUX's plan for mobile ordering and delivery.

Source: Starbucks 2014 investor day presentation

Mobile order ahead or a coffee to your desk.
SBUX has 70 million unique US customers per month, 8 million of these are a part of My Starbucks Rewards their loyalty program. Starting in Portland SBUX will offer these customers mobile ordering. Mobile ordering will use geolocation to show users the closest cafe. It's expected to take around 5 minutes for the drinks and food to be ready after placing an order. They are also testing in select markets dedicated green apron delivery services which will be integrated in SBUX's app. Imagine being able to create a standing order of coffee delivered to your desk daily!

This is much more convenient than anything out there for customers who are typically in a rush during the mornings. This should lead to increased frequency of use. While for SBUX this will increase efficiency getting rid of ordering and payment bottlenecks while also increasing use of their reward programs. What Domino's did for pizza delivery SBUX is trying to do the same for coffee.

Source: Starbucks 2014 investor day presentation

Mobile app payments are 15% of US transactions. While this is impressive 33% of tender in stores is prepaid mostly SBUX gift cards. $4 billion was loaded onto prepaid SBUX cards in the past year in the US. Gift card holders are able to convert their gift cards to their app making it a virtual gift card suggesting much more mobile growth. Also these rewards customers tend to spend 3x more than non rewards customers. As customers join their loyalty program SBUX gets more information about their habits and can better tailor marketing messages.

Source: Starbucks 2014 investor day presentation


Not like other retailers
Most retailers are struggling with declining mall traffic as more consumers buy online (see below). Unlike other retailers SBUX is in the fortunate position of selling experiences that can't be found online. (It's hard to buy coffee online from Amazon.)

Source: Starbucks 2014 investor day presentation

SBUX is a company that has become a daily habit for many. In a fast paced world (especially the morning) the addition of mobile orders and delivery of an already addictive product means SBUX will likely keep up its habit as a daily habit for it's customers.

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has a long position in Starbucks (SBUX) stock.


The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.