Thursday, 26 July 2012

Never buy stock from someone with a hoodie

Lesson of the day never buy stock from someone with a hoodie! All jokes aside once all the anger around Facebook (FB) dies down, now adding earnings to the disappointment list from the IPO. FB could, in my opinion trade similarly like Amazon a stock that trades based on its future potential. FB will not trade on a similar 82x pe multiple but it could easily sustain an above average 30-40 multiple with the market focused on the potential growth opportunity rather than the usual focus on short term profits. For the time being though anger and frustration will dominate sentiment around the stock. Too many frustrated holders were left holding the bag as the insiders sold out at $38 a share a price which is looking better and better every day.


Source Bloomberg

In the second quarter FB had 955 million monthly active users (MAU) up 29% year on year, while mobile MAU were 545 million up 67% year on year. This shift to mobile affected US ad impressions which were down 2% compared to global impressions up 18%.
Decisive does not have a position in FB but I am impressed by some of their initiatives such as sponsored stories, which is FBs response to solving the mobile problem. These stories are basically user remarks about good experiences they had with a product or service highlighted in newsfeed (the main comment area). The beauty with this approach is that the comments look like they are part of the service and do not look like ads which tend to be too small to fit on a mobile screen. Sheryl Sandberg the COO commented that by the end of Q2 sponsored stories were generating over $1 million per day with half coming from FB mobile. To put that in context revenue for the quarter was $1.184 billion at that run rate around 7% of revenue. They also mentioned on the call that only half their current ads are social suggesting more opportunity to grow these services.
As the stock heads below $25 and hopefully $20 investors should begin to focus again on the opportunity and not on the hoodie.

Jason


By the way really enjoyed this social landmark picture from FB. Picture shows the most checked in places on FB users have shared with friends.  Loved it how Australia’s most checked in location was a casino and New Zealand a rugby park!


Source Facebook

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Disclosure: Decisive has no position.

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