China's sharemarket has been a perennial underperformer over the past two years. A number of investors are rightly asking whether now is the time to increase exposure to Chinese related growth? We believe there are enough signs to say not yet. One of these signs was an interesting article we came across on CNNgo, its was an announcement from a Chinese company looking to construct the world's largest building.
The company is Broad Group, a Chinese conglomerate whose main business is in air conditioning. The building will be known as Sky City, it will not only be the largest but the fastest built with plans to construct the building within a record period of 3 or 7 months (depending on translations and articles) using pre-fabricated materials. According to CNN Sky City at 838m will be 10m taller than the Burj Khalifa.
Source: CNNgo.com
I had never heard of the Broad Group before as it is a private company, but it has apprarently became a youtube hit with its construction videos. The video below is a time lapse of a 30 story building they constructed within 15 days. It is amazing to see the workers work through the day and the night.
Why does this concern us in the financial markets? Ironically announcements of the world’s largest buildings have tended to coincide with financial crisis. There is a great article in Forbes last year from Vikram Mansharamani. Basically the world's largest buildings precede crises as they are a symbol of easy money and unbridled optimism.
According to the table below it would seem that the world’s tallest buildings are more of a lagging indicator for crises. It cannot be said that there is easy money in China as the economy has been soft for the past couple of months. According to CNN the Sky City project is still pending approval from the central government, if it does not go ahead all this financial crisis talk will hopefully pass.
World's Tallest Skyscrapers and Related Busts
Building
|
Location (Completed)
|
Spire Height
|
Financial Crisis
|
Singer
|
New York (1908)
|
187 meters
|
Panic of 1907
|
Metropolitan Life
|
New York (1909)
|
247 meters
|
Panic of 1907
|
40 Wall Street
|
New York (1929)
|
283 meters
|
Great Depression
|
Chrysler
|
New York (1929)
|
319 meters
|
Great Depression
|
Empire State
|
New York (1931)
|
443 meters
|
Great Depression
|
World Trade Center
|
New York (1973)
|
526 meters
|
'70s Stagflation
|
Sears Tower
|
Chicago (1974)
|
527 meters
|
'70s Stagflation
|
Petronas Towers
|
Kuala Lumpur (1997)
|
452 meters
|
Asian Financial Crisis
|
Taipei 101
|
Taipei (2004)*
|
509 meters
|
Tech Bubble
|
Burj Dubai
|
Dubai (2008/9)**
|
828 meters
|
Global Credit Crunch
|
*Taipei 101 was financed and construction began in 1999, quite near the peak of the technology boom. **It is interesting to note that the uncompleted Burj Dubai tower was classified as the world's tallest structure on July 21, 2007, right around the peak of the U.S. market before the financial meltdown.
Source: Table sourced from http://www.forbes.com/2011/03/10/skyscrapers-burj-dubai-leadership-leaders-bubbles.html
At the end of the day nobody knows if China will have a financial crisis of their own. Considering we have just experienced a financial crisis in 2008 we would hope this is a less likely outcome with the recent 2008 experience seared into our memories. All we know is that there will eventually be a great opportunity to buy Chinese related stocks as the government finally loosens interest rates. The major problem is that there has been only one rate cut and at Decisive we never look to buy the first rate cut.
A first rate cut, in our opinion is typically an opportunity to sell and not buy the related Chinese market rally as it suggests that economy is likely to weaken further. Interest rates tend to take a while for their benefits to trickle through the economy and we never know how bad things can get. In our opinion, it is much better to wait as interest rates are cut further and as we get greater visibility on the severity of the downturn.
In early June the Chinese central bank cut borrowing costs for the first time since 2008. While we are not sure of the possibilities of a Chinese related financial crisis, given it is the first reduction in rates we are much surer there will be a better time to gain exposure to Chinese equities. We will remain on the sidelines and await for better opportunities.
Jason Sedawie
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.
