Sunday, 25 August 2013

Don't tase me bro

Taser International is famous for its electroshock weapon. Taser (TASR) became a Youtube hit in the famous don't tase me bro video below. Importantly for investors Taser has become a verb. In the public's mind Taser is the term used for being shocked much like Google is known for searching the internet. Achieving the goal of becoming a verb is normally very valuable for investors. Apparently the Taser weapon has been used 1.6 million times.



Growth shock drivers
Taser has three main growth drivers. The weapons upgrade cycle, international expansion and on officer video opportunity.

There are around 330,000 weapons that are beyond their five year useful life. Budgets were cut during the great recession so there is plenty of pent up equipment demand.

There is also room for international expansion with 1 in 2 sworn officers in the US users of the product vs. 1 in 50 internationally

The third factor on officer video is the companies most recent growth opportunity. US Law enforcement spends $2.5 billion on annual legal expenses around $2,555 per office per year. On officer video has significantly reduced complaints and incidents saving time and money. An International Association of Chiefs of Police study found that incident videos can reduce litigation by 93%. Police believe that once incidents are viewed from their perspective it gives third parties a better understanding of what has happened rather than a he said she said argument. Also since civilians and police know they are being recorded they tend not to do things they might have thought they could get away with. 



Source Taser International investor day

The recently released Axon products can be seen in the picture above. To management's knowledge Axon flex has not lost a tender to a competitor in the US. Axon flex includes one year of EVIDENCE.COM which is the storage site for digital evidence. When the devices are charged the evidence data is automatically uploaded to the internet. EVIDENCE.COM is an extremely interesting value add for law agencies and moves Taser from just hardware to software. 

EVIDENCE.COM
As can be seen below EVIDENCE.COM plans to be the one stop shop for digital evidence. This is important for police departments as they tend to work in small decentralised teams and tend not to have resident IT experts deployed at their stations. Multiple devices and hundreds of thousands of officers means the amount of information and time spent on evidence data is exploding. It is a software as a service model no hardware is needed, officers are also able to easily retrieve evidence no CD's needed.



Razor blade model
Individual cartridges which have unique numbers for tracking purposes accounted for 29% of sales. 17 cartridges are used on average over the life of every Taser gun. Tasers tend to be shot twice for training purposes every year and used once a year in the field.

With the introduction of off camera and EVIDENCE.COM Taser becomes more of a software rather than a hardware company. Investors appreciate the recurring revenue streams and stickiness of software companies just please don't tase me bro!

Jason

Disclosure: Decisive has no position in Taser (TASR) stock 
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 18 August 2013

Travel plans

With Christmas holidays only four months away it is time to start thinking about planning a holiday. Visa has helpfully published their recent global travel intentions study for 2013. Given how far away Australia is, I guess it is no surprise that we are the one top 5 spenders in the world just behind Saudi Arabia. We are making the most of a strong Australian dollar! The UK is surprising in the bottom 5 though future intentions to spend will nearly double suggesting that the UK economy is finally recovering.



Best travel sites
Since we Australians spend so much we better plan ahead. Unsurprisingly Tripadvisor is the most popular destination for planning a trip with Expedia the most popular booking site. Though Expedia has recently taken a hit with Booking.com moving aggressively into the US market. The US is the most visited destination at 17%. Tourism is extremely important for the economy contributing 9% to global GDP. In 2012 the number of international trips taken surpassed the one billion mark for the first time.




What to bring?
The most common gadget brought on the trip is a phone and the reason being is internet connectivity. The camera was second at 70%. The digital habit has taken off more in Asia with 79% of travellers uploading posts while European travellers tend to disconnect from daily life when travelling. On average global travellers take 11 days to plan a trip. Time to visit Tripadvisor, it's never too early to get organised!

Jason

Disclosure: Decisive has a long position in Visa (V) stock and Priceline (PCLN) owner of Booking.com
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 11 August 2013

Botox

As a company Allergan (AGN) is best known for its Botox product. As a cure for wrinkles AGN has become a celebrities best friend but in fact ophthalmology (eye care) is the largest division of the business. AGN is classified as a pharmaceutical company but consumer beauty is the major driver for the company. Botox is growing much like the magic pudding it is delivering new solutions for different problems with a current focus on reducing migraines.


AGN is positioned in three attractive sectors ophthalmology (eye care), obesity and cosmetics. All three sectors target the aging and increasing weight of populations around the world. As an investor a company that benefits from the ageing of the population and obesity are two attractive investment areas.

No patent cliff for Botox
Apparently Botox is a naturally occurring substance so AGN cannot patent it. But what they do have a patent on is the process of making and harvesting the Botox itself. Some have described it as valuable as the Coca-Cola recipe.



AGN targets EPS growth in the mid-teens and management do have a good track record. The stock has sold off recently because of reduced expectations regarding its future drug pipeline. There are concerns that competition in eye care will increase with the US Food and Drug Administration seeming to pave the way for competitors to start making generic forms of Restasis (chronic dry solution their second best selling product around 14% sales) much earlier than investors expected. The stock now trades at the closest premium to its peers in years. Even with a reduced pipeline exposure just to Botox suggests it is still a stock to watch.

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has no position in Allergan (AGN) stock
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 4 August 2013

Hello Moto

Motorola has officially unveiled their first phone under the ownership of Google (GOOG). Google paid $12.5 billion for Motorola Mobility in May 2012 which was Google's first push into making phone hardware. The phone is the first since Google bought the company over a year ago because it has taken time before new management could impact the company's product timeline and roll out their own designs.

Whats different? Choice and Voice
The power of choice (design your own phone) and the ability to control your phone by voice not just your hands. With your voice you can check the weather and get directions no more juggling with your phone voice commands begin with OK, Google Now. The phone also makes it easier to take photos with a flick of your wrist the camera activates, no more missed photo opportunities!

The smartphone has finally moved on with colour choice unlike Henry Ford famous 1930's Model T comment that a customer can have a car painted any colour that he wants so long as it is black! Potential customers can choose from 18 colours other than black and white with an overall 2,000 possible combinations for the front, back and buttons. We have progressed even further with the humble headphone that has colours available which can be matched to the phone. Another difference from competitors is that the phone will be designed and made in the US.

Moto X compared to the two most popular competing phones.

Comparison thanks to http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/moto-x-vs-iphone-5-vs-galaxy-s4/

The specs do not look great for those who want the fastest hardware and best screen resolution available. A visit to Motorola's blog explains their strategy of ease of use and not necessarily the best hardware. This might disappoint some users especially given some of the hype.

Google has kept both operating companies separate to overcome concerns of favorable treatment to an internal company over others like Samsung. This has lead to criticism from some Motorola employees that they have actually been disadvantaged and treated worse because Google does not want to show an inch of favoritism as the priority is to keep the Android mobile operating system open to all. This could be seen as making excuses already but Google has had a great track record in software and Motorola used to be great at devices. We will see the results late August, early September when the the phone will become available in the US.

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has a long position in Google (GOOG) stock which owns Motorola
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Friday, 26 July 2013

Modern spice routes

Welcome to the new spice route, the internet! The local buyers market has become the world. According to Paypal cross border shopping has taken off similar to the spice routes of old. It is easy to forget how much buying and selling has changed. Before we were limited to what we could buy in our own country but now we can buy or sell without having to set foot on foreign soil.

Around 16% of online spend is cross border with the most popular destination the US. Overseas customers are most worried about fraud so buyer protection is important (Paypal gets their plug here.) Of course the most used payment method was Paypal!

For retailers these customers are great as they are not just looking for a discount but are seeking quality and authenticity. Even though the spice routes are global they are still regional with German shoppers tending to buy from Austria while mainland Chinese buy from Japan and Hong Kong.



Mobile shopping is also a driver and has been taken up most in China with 14 million mobile cross border shoppers making up 74% of the cross border population. These numbers are expected to double by 2018. Chinese and Brazilian buyers were particularly keen to be protected showing more concern over security than others. Given our location it should be no surprise that Australians value free shipping over quality and variety!

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has a long position in eBay (EBAY) stock which owns Paypal
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.


Monday, 22 July 2013

Take a seat with Lazy Boy

The US housing market is back! The amount of new homes being built has doubled from the bottom in 2009 (see chart below). This is a big improvement but starts have increased to what has been the trough for previous recessions. This suggests there is still substantial room for improvement given the population has increased 50% since the 1970's.

Source: Bloomberg

Home builder stocks have done well as the number of new home starts have increased. We feel that furniture stocks should benefit more going forward. The most famous furniture stock of all is Lazy Boy (LZB).  LZB is the leading global producer of reclining chairs and the second largest distributor in the US according to Furniture Today. The market value of LZB is just over $1 billion still quite small given they are the leading brand in the industry.

No sitting back and relaxing here
LZB had a tough time during the crisis cutting staff and resizing production. But today the company is stronger LZB can now manufacture the same amount of furniture in their five facilities as they did in nine factories five years ago.


                                                         Source: Lazy Boy annual report

LZB is now a different company as the graphs above suggest. Debt of $150 million has been paid down LZB now has net cash of $125 million. LZB currently has 878 stores with plans to increase to 1,000 outlets, over 87% of sales are just in the US. LZB also signed a deal last year with Kuka Home a large Chinese retailer to sell product in China. The stores will be owned by Kuka home but LZB will receive a portion of the profits.



Sit back, relax and enjoy the ride.

Jason


Disclosure: Decisive has no long position in Lazy Boy (LZB) stock
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.



Sunday, 14 July 2013

Investing in online dating (Match.com)

Online dating has gone mainstream with one third of marriages now beginning online. This is according to a study conducted by the University of Chicago and is based on a sample of 19,131 people over the past seven years.

Key to a successful marriage is to meet online
The study found that online couples have longer, happier marriages though it needs to be disclosed that eHarmony.com paid for the study.This does makes sense as I guess you can assume that people dating online are serious about a relationship and interests can be matched. It is also becoming more normal to meet someone online meaning the pool of available partners increases each year.

The people meeting online where likely to be 30-39, employed and had a higher income (not a bad place to start!). The study found the least successful marriages were blind dates, bars and people who met in virtual worlds. Divorce rates for those who met online was around 6% compared to 7.6% for people offline. They also found that people are relatively honest online with lies tending to be around slight exaggerations of weight and height.

How do you invest in the dating game?
Well there are two major players eHarmony.com and Match.com. Unfortunately eHarmony.com is a private company and Match.com is owned within Interactive Corp (IACI) which owns over 50 internet businesses. Match.com is the market leader with 24% market share according to IBIS World.


The only way to invest in this area is IACI which is an internet conglomerate. They also own the largest European dating site meetic.com, OkCupid, Singlesnet and chemistry.com. Dating is around 28% of operating income. In the past year dating segment sales have grown at around a mid-teens growth rate.

The good news for investors is that IACI has a track record of spinning off businesses when they are able to stand on their own and no longer need nurturing from the parent company. In our opinion its possible that with IACI under performing the market and trading at a low valuation compared to peers that match.com could be spun off. Within IACI's businesses match.com is the most likely to stand on its own. It would also most likely trade at a premium to the group with IACI overall trading on 11x forward multiple.

Here for a good time or a long time?
So while there is no pure play dating company it is possible IACI could spin off its dating business. It has a great track record of spin offs with Expedia which then spun off Trip Advisor for a combined market value of $13.4 billion 3x larger than IACI value of $4.1 billion. It's possible that this spin-off history could repeat.

Jason

Come visit our booth at the Sydney Trading and Investment Expo on the 19th-20th of July.

To download your free tickets to this month's Trading & Investment expo courtesy of Decisive Asset Management simply click on the link below and when prompted enter the code DECISIVE. Your free tickets will be emailed to your inbox.

http://sydney.tradingandinvestingexpo.com.au/visitor/register


Disclosure: Decisive has a long position in Interactive Corp (IACI) stock
The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.